[Part IV, titled "Yes, Virginia...," is here.]
[This post corrects my earlier misinterpretation of the model results in paragraph four below.]
Gallup's likely-voter results in their Generic Congressional Ballot poll for last week were released today. They are R-D =+17% for a light turnout and R-D=+12% for heavy, virtually identical to their previous week's results of +18% and +13% respectively. Given how volatile their registered-voter results have been through the summer, that small change is in itself remarkable.
The numbers are, of course, most incredible for the size of the Republican lead. The RealClearPolitics average for the GCB is a huge R-D=+8.2%.
I caution you that history shows that on the average, only about half the average GCB lead in October shows up as the two-party differential in the total national congressional vote on election day, though there is also a one percentage point shift away from the party of the President.
The model I'm using to predict the 2011 House of Representatives on the basis of the average GCB continues to predict a solid 80% chance of Republican capture. From the data in the RCP listing today, it predicts a 50-ish seat swing in the House against the Dems, resulting in a split of 229 Republicans to 206 Democrats.
As a result of the Democrats' persistently low standing in the polls, the back biting and bickering among them has intensified to the point that now they are even blaming their sainted President. Here is Mark Halperin, political analyst and at-large editor for Time Magazine describing in that leftist rag just how little of 2008's leg tingling remains.
According to Halperin, most elite members of the press now agree with the majority of the American electorate that Obama -- like the Wizard of Oz -- is a good man, but a very bad wizard.
