The Unelectables

Here is RealClearPolitics.com's Sean Trende's analysis answering the widespread opinion that the contenders for the Republican Presidential Nomination are unelectable.

Says he, "So's your Ol 'Bama!" 

The Wreck of the Romney Inevitable (Part IV)

Just a couple of quick notes.

The last debate seems to have hurt Newt in Florida.  Two polls shown here taken since Monday, January 23, show Mitt leading him by about 6%.  The total number of people polled in those polls is about 900 people, so the margin of error on that number is about 3%.  Perhaps most interesting is the change from the 1/22 poll by Insider Advantage to the same company's 1/25 poll (scroll down a bit in the page).  Gingrich's support dipped only 2%, but Romney's jumped by 14%.   Since Santorum's support fell by 3% and Paul's by 4%, Romney's biggest pickup, 5%, came from the perennial candidates Aldee Udders and Ida Noe.

Insurgent vs. Establishment

Just as it was in 2010, it's Insurgents vs. The Establishment again in 2012.  So says the WSJ's usually ho-hum Gerald Seib.  He's right about that. 

Though Newt has lived in Washington DC for 33 years, has cozied up to the Clintons, sat on the love seat with Nancy Pelosi, advocated ethanol subsidies, the individual mandate, and home ownership for everyone, he is now the darling of  the Tea Party Insurgents.  How can that be?

There are many answers to that.

The Wreck of the Romney Inevitable (Part III)

Here is RealClearPolitics election analyst Sean Trende's takeaways on Romney's devastation in South Carolina.  Basically, they are

1.  No good news for Romney anywhere.
2.  This is much worse than W's 2000 loss to McCain in NH.
3.  Analysts claiming Romey's inevitability are kidding themselves.

Enjoy.  I did.  He estimates the chances that Romney won't be the nominee at 35%.

Oh.  Yeah.  The Romney lead in Florida has evaporated.  Newt leads him by 8 and 9% in the two polls taken since the South Carolina election.

The Wreck of the Romney Inevitable (Part II)

Here are the WSJ editors on Gingrich v. Romney, yet again.

As far as I know, they aren't reading my blog, but they echo my points of yesterday, saying

The more serious flaw exposed by the tax debate is Mr. Romney's inability, or unwillingness, to make a larger and persuasive case for free-market economic growth and lower tax rates.

And they advise the "Republican establishment, such as it is," to chill out, and wait to see whether Gingrich can himself chill a bit,and what the Republican electorate decides.

Good advice.

The Wreck of The Romney Inevitable

Mitt Romney's cruise to the nomination ran afoul of reality yesterday.  His inability to capture the anger of the Republican electorate contrasted sharply with Newt Gingrich's pithy sound-bite irascibility in two South Carolina debates.

The MV Romney Inevitable, steered into treacherous waters by its election consultant captains trying to please its establishment cooks and their bottle washer admirers on the beach, breached its hull on South Carolina's rocky reef of conservative voters and foundered.  It's highly visible hull, leaking cash and supporters, will continue to foul the prospects for the Republican party for months to come.

Consultants Fighting the Last Election

You can read lots of opinions on last night's Hawkuses Caucuses result where Rick Santorum effectively tied Mitt Romney.  Ron Paul was not too far behind them, with all three way out in front of Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michelle Bachmann -- she who has now suspended her campaign.  Of course, Santorum, Romney, and Paul will each get six first-ballot-committed Iowa delegates at the Tampa Convention.  Gingrich will get four, Perry will get three, and Bachmann, who finished just below 5%, will get none at all.

Even more remarkable than the closeness of Romney's total to Santorum's, Romney finished within six votes of his 2008 total.  Virtually the same total then was a big loss, this time it's a victory.