What About That Tax Deal?

One of my correspondents -- a fellow traveler in libertarian circles probably trying to get me to stop crowing about my election prediction -- wrote "So what do you think of the current 'tax deal'?"

I think the answer to that depends on whether you focus on the intent or the impact and whether your point of view is economic or political.  It also depends on whether your comparison is between before the deal (BD) and after the deal (AD) or between The Deal (TD) and No Deal (ND), and, perhaps most of all, on whether your view is short term or long.

And the Last Winner Is... Tim Bishop (D) NY-01

The last congressional race of the 2010 midterm election was decided Wednesday, December 8, when Republican Randy Altschuler conceded victory to incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop in the NY-01 congressional district comprised of the eastern half of Long Island.

Republicans will control the 112th House of Representatives with a 242-193 majority, a net change of 63 seats from the now lamest-of-ducks 111th.  It will be the largest Republican majority since the 80th Congress (246-189) elected in the first post-World-War-II midterm of 1946.  The highest Republican majority since then, achieved in George W. Bush's post 9/11 re-election of 2004, was 231-203 with one seat vacant.  It will be the fifth largest Republican majority since the House went to 435 seats almost a century ago in 1913.

In a less exultatory tone, on the day before the election, Monday, November 1, I predicted here that the final split would be 243-192 and the final swing 64 seats.

Now, with Altschuler's concession, I am forced to admit the one-seat error of my ways.

Employment Growth and Party Control of Legislatures

Sherry noticed that employment growth data in the Albuquerque Journal correlated with her recollection of red-blue party maps in recent elections.  When she googled "state lagislature control by party" she found that correlated, too.  So we wrote a letter to the editor.  Usually, they ignore mine and publish hers, so this time we both our names on it.

According to the regional map of employment growth in the Business Outlook of December 6, 2010, the only states of the Southwest region that had positive employment growth from September 2009 to September 2010 are Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Those are also the only states in the region where the state legislature is controlled by Republicans.  Don't believe it?  Check Wikipedia's maps at  State Legislature (United States).

New Mexicans can join their more prosperous neighbors in 2012 by dumping a bunch of Democrats from the Senate and few more from the House to get a state legislature that will encourage growth and economic development through smaller, better government rather than discourage it through more regulation, larger taxation, and more subsidization of favored industries.