If I seem to you to be too focused on the polls, I apologize, but I'm going to keep it up for the next four weeks.
Reasoning from principles don't mean much in the last few weeks before election day, as you must surely know if you've watched or listened to any campaign spots lately. A friend says to any candidate in earshot "If you're explaining you're probably losing."
Today's news is the Gallup organization's release of its first polls with their likely voter screen applied. You've probably already seen it, but if not, take a look here.
Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and he's coming early if this holds till November 2.
Friday I showed you Frank Newport's early warning of this very, er... extremely, er..., well,... huge difference between their registered-voter polls and their then-upcoming likely-voter poll.
As for the details of their turnout-based model, I can't say much about it at this point, but my guess is it's based on asking something like "How likely are you to vote this November 2: not very likely, pretty likely, likely, certain, absolutely certain, or 'You betcha!'?" After which they collect the votes of those who say "certain" or better for the low turnout model and everyone who says "pretty likely" or better for the high turnout model.
If you're in need of a reminder as to why an economic libertarian should be so dedicated to the Republican cause in this election, perhaps you'll find it here.
Any enemy of progressivism is my friend.
