Stuart Rothenberg -- an experienced and generally well respected election prognosticator -- writes in his
most recent column that Angle's numbers vs. Reid may not have looked all that great toward the end of the primary campaign...
- But as readers of this column know, it's Reid's numbers that matter most, not Angle's. And Reid's numbers still look terrible to any dispassionate observer.
- Reid has been drawing 38 percent to 43 percent on the ballot test against Angle for months, and he has been in that range in ballot tests against almost any of his possible GOP opponents.
- In the June Review-Journal Senate poll, Reid's name identification was 35 percent favorable/52 percent unfavorable about where it has been for months, and roughly where then-New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine (D) was six months before he was defeated for re-election.
- The chances of Reid improving his own standing are small. He's simply been around too long to do that, especially given his recent position as Senate Majority Leader and his role in advancing the president's agenda in a midterm election year.
After noting that Reid's only choice is to run a barrage of negative ads intended to drive up Angle's negatives, Rothenberg continues:
- It will be difficult for Reid to make the election about Angle, whose demeanor doesn't seem scary to voters, than about Obama, the unpopular Congress, the economy and the Democratic agenda. And that's why Harry Reid is still more likely than not to lose.
To Rothenberg, Reid is still toast.
