The Race is On

Those of you who have attained a certain age, and who spent a significant part of your formative years in a small town or rural setting may remember when Top 40 radio really played the top 40 records in the country.  I heard Rock and Roll, Rhythm and Blues, Country and Western, Big Band Swing, all of it, on KBIM in Roswell.  In the NMSU SUB Snack Bar there was always a cowboy -- yep, the whole nine yards, hat, skinny Levis, belt buckle, and boots, though maybe studying agronomy or agricultural engineering -- walkin' up to the juke box and droppin' in a quarter for three plays.  One of them was sure to be George Jones pickin' and singin' The Race is On.  It was later covered by The Grateful Dead, though it's just not the same.

Over the last ten days, the Romney machine -- including the Super PACs flying low on Wall Street money -- carpet-bombed Newt Gingrich back into second place.  Yesterday -- to hear the establishment punditry and the Romney endorsers tell it -- Mitt creamed! Shellacked! DEVASTATED! Newt by FOURTEEN! percentage points and took ALL FIFTY! delegates from Florida.  Shazam! Kaboom!

In yesterday's victory, Romney did win 50 of the so-far-awarded 109 delegates.  Was that a much bigger win than Newt's 14 percentage point victory in South Carolina from which Newt got 23 of the then available 59 delegates?  Neither contest was the whole race; each was just one heat.

Here, at TheGreenPapers.com, you can see that through 4 states, and after just over three weeks, the delegate totals are

Romney  67

Gingrich  27

Paul         9

Santorum  6

So only 109 delegates have been pledged, less than 5% of the 2286 going to the convention.  And Romney's BIG LEAD! -- all due to his last win -- gives him about 6% of the 1144 needed to win.

So the race is on.  For those of you who couldn't bring yourself to listen to George Jone's country tune or don't speak grandolopry the chorus goes like this:

Now the race is on and here comes pride up the back stretch,

heartache's a goin' to the inside,

my tears are holdin' back,

tryin' not to fall.

My heart's out of the running,

true love scratched for another's sake,

the race is on and it looks like heartache,

and the winner loses all.

And for those interested in the facts instead of the emotion of the equestrian event, you can find the complete racing form here.  You have to drill down by clicking on the state's names in the calendar to get the complete picture.  For states where the decision is in, you will find the delegate allocations.  For upcoming states, the details of the kind of event are available.

Like all racing forms, it's a tricky read, because the Caucus/Convention states start their processes at the indicated dates, but in many cases, the pledged delegate totals aren't determined until much later.  Indeed, Maine is listed in the week ending last night because voting in its non-binding Republican straw poll started last Saturday, January 28th.  Next Tuesday in Colorado and Minnesota, precinct level selection of delegates to higher level conventions that will elect delegates to still higher level conventions, eventually leading to a statewide convention will be held, but those states' delegates won't be selected until April 14th and May 4th respectively.

The next big event is this Saturday: Nevada's closed precinct caucuses which, like Iowa's, actually pledge the state's 28 delegates.

After that we get a three-week respite until Tuesday, February 28.  Then Michigan pledges its 30 delegates in a primary like South Carolina did, some winner-take-all by district and the rest proportionally statewide, and Arizona awards its 29 delegates in a winner-take-all closed primary.  When those heats are in, we'll have 196 pledged delegates -- I think.

During the week after that, ending on Tuesday, March 6th -- known as Super Tuesday -- the pace picks up as 347 delegates -- I think! -- are in play.  The states and delegate count actually being alloted on that day seem to me to be these:

GA (76                  Ind)

MA (41  Prop         Ind)

OH (66          OpenAff)

OK (43                       )

TN (55  MajProp Open)

VT (17  Prop       Open)

VA (49  MajProp Open, Newtless).

These are mostly winner-take-all by district and statewide like South Carolina's.  MajProp means that if the winner doesn't get a majority delegates are awarded proportionally.  They are closed unless noted otherwise: Ind means independents may vote, Aff, that if they do their affiliation changes to Republican.

And after that, we'll have only 543 delegates pledged, still less than a quarter of the total.  As I said before, the consultants are fighting the last Republican primary.  If Mitt and his Wall Street buddies want to carpet bomb Newt for 1100 more delegates at $300k each -- as in Florida -- they're going to need $330M, after which they'll be back for a bailout!

Unlike George's, my heart's still in the runnin'.  Like you, I'm hoping we're not losin' all.