Sunday, January 23, 2011

The Second Great Lie

Whenever a bond issue comes up for a vote, someone in favor of the spending is likely to say "Vote for this.  Your taxes won't go up."  It's the second great lie of political discourse.

A fiscal conservative should always reply, "That's just plain wrong.  Taxes will be higher if this bond issue passes than if it does not.  And that's all that matters."


The Free Spender's statement may be true, since another bond issue may be about to be paid off, and the taxes that do that may then lapse.  When the new issue requires new taxes that just continue old taxes, it may seem that the taxes don't go up.  Even then, though, taxes will be higher than if the new bonds weren't issued, and that's the choice the voter faces: one between two possible situations after the election.  The comparison of what's true before the election to what will be true after it is simply not material.

The fiscal conservative's reply is absolutely true.  Any particular bond election has nothing to do with other bonds being retired.  They will be retired regardless of whether the issue passes or fails.  But the portion of taxes associated with a particular taxing authority will be less if any particular issue is defeated.

All other things being equal, taxes will be lower with the defeat of any given bond issue.  Of course, if some other component of taxes increases independently, then total tax bill could go up even if a given bond issue is defeated.  However, if it is defeated, taxes would go up less.

You can always say this: Taxes will be higher if this bond issue passes than if it does not.

Is this bond issue worth the increase in taxes?  Well, that's the question you should consider before voting on one.  Some are, though I am inclined to say most are not.  But this is always true:
Taxes will be higher if this bond issue passes than if it does not.
The first great lie?  "I'm from the government and I'm here to help you!"