And Then There Was One...

The last county with votes in CA-11 certified its results today, and incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney defeated David Harmer by just 1.1%.  The liberal local New York paper's current count of the House is 242-192, for a swing of 63.

Only the NY-01 race remains undecided.  Incumbent Democrat Timothy Bishop leads his Republican challenger Randy Altschuler by 214 or 215 votes -- depending on whether you accept the Bishop camp's numbers or Altschuler's -- but a recount seems likely.

By the way, NY-01 contains Port Jefferson, my daughter-in-law Laura's home until she went off to college in Washington, DC, as well as some little burgs known as The Hamptons where some well-to-do folks from The City have summer homes and choose to vote -- in at least one case for a second time -- to balance the more conservative locals.

Of course, I want Altschuler to win for the extra margin in the House, but if he does, the Republican gain in the House will be 64, exactly in line with my last prediction here.

New Mexico's Economic Freedom Think Tank

Week in and week out, Paul Gessing and the Rio Grande Foundation do incredibly important work.  Paul's blog at ErrorsOfEnchantment chronicles the fallacies that dominate establishment thinking on political economy in New Mexico and the nation as a whole.  Check out the link in his Thanksgiving message for a great example.  It details the failure of early socialism in the Massachusetts Bay Colony.

Paul's efforts will help us relearn the truth of that first Thanksgiving -- that the way to raise people out of poverty and even stave off starvation is to institute property rights and a free market -- and to help us remember to pass that truth on to our children and grandchildren.

The Quantitative Easing and the Ben Bernank

Thanks to one of my correspondents, I'm able to share with you this Economics 201 Money and Banking bit of fun.  It would rolling-on-the-floor-laughing-out-loud fun if there weren't quite so much truth in it.

And yes, I know that it's Bernanke.  Watch the video.

And Another Two Bite the Dust...

Two incumbent Democrats conceded their close races Tuesday to Republican challengers: Solomon Ortiz to Blake Farenthold in TX-27 and Daniel Maffei to Ann Marie Buerkle in NY-25.

Maffei had the option to ask for a hand recount, but decided to forego it.  Of the other three races I mentioned in my last post, one went Democrat and the the other two remain in doubt.

Election Results vs. Predictions

I have held off counting coup on the Democrats in the House of Representatives since a number of races still hang in the balance.

I have not found any single source tracking all those races other than the liberal local New York paper's (LLNYP) House race map.  It changes occasionally, which indicates that it is still being updated.

Their partial count shows that Democrats have been declared winners in 190 races and Republicans in 240, with five races remaining to be determined.  Republicans lead in four of those five, with the average lead being about 500-600 votes, though in one case it is only 27 votes.  Those races, and their status as this is posted are here:

	Dem	Rep	R - D
CA-11	McNerney	Harner	-628
CA-20	Costa	Vidak	27
NY-01	Bishop	Altschuler	383
NY-25	Maffei	Buerkle	659
TX-27	Ortiz	Farenthold	799

If these races were all to go the way they now lean, Republicans would hold a 244 to 191 seat majority, for a swing of 66 seats.

Dillinger's Law

The Deficit Reduction Commission's draft report is summarized here.  It was released last week, to the nearly complete surprise of the chattering class.  Googling "deficit reduction commission" turns up twenty links before one that points to the commission's site.  Since Google sorts links by the number of people who have clicked through them, this shows that most people don't care to get facts from original sources.

The commission has had this epiphany: if you have to move toward a balanced budget -- and that's what deficit reduction is, after all --  you have to reduce the tax breaks and bene's for the middle class.  There are simply way too few high-income earners from which to raise a few percent of the nation's total economic production.  People who make more than $1M per year  have only about $500B in total income, so confiscating all of that we aren't already taking in taxes would only raise about a third of an Obama deficit.

Sherry says the Deficit Reduction Commission is just recognizing Dillinger's Law, named for the bank robber who, when asked why he robbed banks, replied "Because that's where the money is."

[And yes, I know it wasn't Dillinger, or Willie Sutton either.  It's just Common Knowledge -- search down for "Common Knowledge and read on from there].

Who Am I to Blow Against the Wind?

A friend with long experience in politics once told me, "Don't waste your breath trying to convince those who won't listen."

A guy came to my house last week working for a company we hire to wash our windows.  He spoke very good English with a heavy Spanish accent.  It turned out he was from Cuba.  I asked how he got here.  "On two tractor tires lashed to a couple of sheets of plywood with my buddy for 12 days.  No food and water after the first few," he told me.

What's Wrong with the CBO Stimulus Analysis?

One of my correspondents writes

Many liberals are circulating this around FB...any thoughts? I know you're a numbers guy!

Gallup's Final GCB at +15%

Gallup's final generic congressional ballot survey shows Republicans at 55% and Democrats at 40%.  This predicts a national two-party congressional vote of Rep 58%, Dem 42%.  According to one set of 1000 Monte Carlo simulations taking into account the heavy Democrat incumbent advantage, this negative 16% D result implies that the next House could split 243 R to 192 D, a net Democrat loss of 64 seats, and a larger Republican majority and a smaller Democrat minority than any since 1946.

About this, Gallup says