With this election's final act only a week from tomorrow, individual state polls and electoral analyses seem stuck. Romney's surge in the popular vote doesn't seem to be reflected in the swing states that will determine the winner in the electoral college. That could be because the pollsters doing those state polls aren't all that competent -- many are not national polling organizations with reputations to protect -- because they are tweaking the results to push their agenda, or because those polled are just not willing to give up their personal decision.
I pin my hope for reversing our country's turn down Hayek's road to tyranny on two things. The first is a mistaken model for the composition of the actual electorate across the country based on the 2008 electorate, and the other is the theory that the President is over-performing because a substantial fraction of those polled don't want anyone to know that they plan to vote against our first black president -- also known as the Bradley effect.
Here is a relatively long analytical piece from Eric Erickson's RedState .com on the composition of the electorate for 2012 focused on the large lead Romney has among independents.
May it give you the courage to soldier on another week!
