You can read lots of opinions on last night's Hawkuses Caucuses result where Rick Santorum effectively tied Mitt Romney. Ron Paul was not too far behind them, with all three way out in front of Newt Gingrich, Rick Perry, and Michelle Bachmann -- she who has now suspended her campaign. Of course, Santorum, Romney, and Paul will each get six first-ballot-committed Iowa delegates at the Tampa Convention. Gingrich will get four, Perry will get three, and Bachmann, who finished just below 5%, will get none at all.
Even more remarkable than the closeness of Romney's total to Santorum's, Romney finished within six votes of his 2008 total. Virtually the same total then was a big loss, this time it's a victory.
Jay Cost, once of RealClearPolitics.com unveils a sensible analysis this morning in The Weekly Standard. His take is that Romney didn't do a single percentage point better last night than he did in 2008, when there was a strong contender to his right -- Mike Huckabee -- and John McCain to his left.
Cost closes with this "Nobody to his left. No dominant figure to his right. Romney is in the catbird seat. That's not an endorsement, just a statement of fact."
Of course, that assumes that the SuperPACs that support Romney don't drive all but one of Santorum, Gingrich, and Perry out of the race by carpet bombing them with negative ads before February 7. If that were to happen, Romney would face a conservative wing of the Republican party unified behind the remaining one, probably Santorum or Gingrich.
Why would those SuperPACs do that, you ask? Because they are run by consultants -- generals always fighting the last war -- who, as Sherry says, need to unlearn a few things.
The most important thing they won't unlearn is how its always been before. Finish in the top three in Iowa and New Hampshire becomes easier. Win New Hampshire and you begin to look like the nominee, so South Carolina becomes easier. Do reasonably well in South Carolina and you look like someone who can turn out voters in the midwest, the northeast, and the south, so you look even more like the nominee, and then the voters begin to feel your inevitablility. And everyone knows that the Republican electorate favors the inevitable.
The consultants need to unlearn that lesson because this year, those dominoes stand too close together for one to have enough impact to knock the next one down. By moving its primary to the end of January, Florida pushed all of them up against each other and Iowa almost into the holiday season, robbing them of the calendar space to exert much influence.
Sure, Romney won Iowa -- barely -- but Iowa's impact on the Republican electorate -- across the country as well as in the New Hampshire -- will be lessened by the very short interval before the Granite State votes next Tuesday. Sure, though an angry Newt will assault him and may damage him badly, Romney will win in New Hampshire. But with South Carolina coming right on the heels of New Hampshire, that result will have all the impact of a leaf blown against the electorate's window screen on a windy night. And what impact will a victory by Newt in South Carolina have? After all, the Florida primary is hard on the heels of the Palmetto State's. And the Nevada Caucuses follow the week after Florida's primary. So the flood of inevitability never gets time to soak in.
After that comes the first breathing space: nearly a month till Super Tuesday, March 6, the next significant binding of delegates. By the time that hiatus begins, the first time the electorate will have time to think since last night, the picture may well be very muddled.
This is unlike any war the consultant generals have ever fought before.
