What About That Tax Deal?

One of my correspondents -- a fellow traveler in libertarian circles probably trying to get me to stop crowing about my election prediction -- wrote "So what do you think of the current 'tax deal'?"

I think the answer to that depends on whether you focus on the intent or the impact and whether your point of view is economic or political.  It also depends on whether your comparison is between before the deal (BD) and after the deal (AD) or between The Deal (TD) and No Deal (ND), and, perhaps most of all, on whether your view is short term or long.

And the Last Winner Is... Tim Bishop (D) NY-01

The last congressional race of the 2010 midterm election was decided Wednesday, December 8, when Republican Randy Altschuler conceded victory to incumbent Democrat Tim Bishop in the NY-01 congressional district comprised of the eastern half of Long Island.

Republicans will control the 112th House of Representatives with a 242-193 majority, a net change of 63 seats from the now lamest-of-ducks 111th.  It will be the largest Republican majority since the 80th Congress (246-189) elected in the first post-World-War-II midterm of 1946.  The highest Republican majority since then, achieved in George W. Bush's post 9/11 re-election of 2004, was 231-203 with one seat vacant.  It will be the fifth largest Republican majority since the House went to 435 seats almost a century ago in 1913.

In a less exultatory tone, on the day before the election, Monday, November 1, I predicted here that the final split would be 243-192 and the final swing 64 seats.

Now, with Altschuler's concession, I am forced to admit the one-seat error of my ways.

Employment Growth and Party Control of Legislatures

Sherry noticed that employment growth data in the Albuquerque Journal correlated with her recollection of red-blue party maps in recent elections.  When she googled "state lagislature control by party" she found that correlated, too.  So we wrote a letter to the editor.  Usually, they ignore mine and publish hers, so this time we both our names on it.

According to the regional map of employment growth in the Business Outlook of December 6, 2010, the only states of the Southwest region that had positive employment growth from September 2009 to September 2010 are Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Oklahoma, and Texas.

Those are also the only states in the region where the state legislature is controlled by Republicans.  Don't believe it?  Check Wikipedia's maps at  State Legislature (United States).

New Mexicans can join their more prosperous neighbors in 2012 by dumping a bunch of Democrats from the Senate and few more from the House to get a state legislature that will encourage growth and economic development through smaller, better government rather than discourage it through more regulation, larger taxation, and more subsidization of favored industries.

And Then There Was One...

The last county with votes in CA-11 certified its results today, and incumbent Democrat Jerry McNerney defeated David Harmer by just 1.1%.  The liberal local New York paper's current count of the House is 242-192, for a swing of 63.

Only the NY-01 race remains undecided.  Incumbent Democrat Timothy Bishop leads his Republican challenger Randy Altschuler by 214 or 215 votes -- depending on whether you accept the Bishop camp's numbers or Altschuler's -- but a recount seems likely.

By the way, NY-01 contains Port Jefferson, my daughter-in-law Laura's home until she went off to college in Washington, DC, as well as some little burgs known as The Hamptons where some well-to-do folks from The City have summer homes and choose to vote -- in at least one case for a second time -- to balance the more conservative locals.

Of course, I want Altschuler to win for the extra margin in the House, but if he does, the Republican gain in the House will be 64, exactly in line with my last prediction here.

New Mexico's Economic Freedom Think Tank

Week in and week out, Paul Gessing and the Rio Grande Foundation do incredibly important work.  Paul's blog at ErrorsOfEnchantment chronicles the fallacies that dominate establishment thinking on political economy in New Mexico and the nation as a whole.  Check out the link in his Thanksgiving message for a great example.  It details the failure of early socialism in the Massachusetts Bay Colony.

Paul's efforts will help us relearn the truth of that first Thanksgiving -- that the way to raise people out of poverty and even stave off starvation is to institute property rights and a free market -- and to help us remember to pass that truth on to our children and grandchildren.

The Quantitative Easing and the Ben Bernank

Thanks to one of my correspondents, I'm able to share with you this Economics 201 Money and Banking bit of fun.  It would rolling-on-the-floor-laughing-out-loud fun if there weren't quite so much truth in it.

And yes, I know that it's Bernanke.  Watch the video.

And Another Two Bite the Dust...

Two incumbent Democrats conceded their close races Tuesday to Republican challengers: Solomon Ortiz to Blake Farenthold in TX-27 and Daniel Maffei to Ann Marie Buerkle in NY-25.

Maffei had the option to ask for a hand recount, but decided to forego it.  Of the other three races I mentioned in my last post, one went Democrat and the the other two remain in doubt.