Here is notable Democrat partisan Ronald Brownstein's National Journal analysis of The Awesome One's state-by-state approval numbers for January through June as reported by Gallup.
Based on the Gallup numbers, Brownstein say TAO would probably win a close race, but notes
- Today, Obama would be in a slightly weaker position almost everywhere than the Gallup numbers indicate. The state-by-state approval numbers are based on the aggregated results of Gallup's nightly tracking poll from January to June -- some 90,000 interviews in all. Gallup divided the results by state, and reweighted the findings so that they are demographically representative of each local electorate. In the interviews used to generate the state-level results, Obama's overall national approval rating averaged 47 percent; in the most recent weekly Gallup average, Obama had fallen to 42 percent. That decline is reflected in some more recent state polls showing Obama in a more vulnerable position than the Gallup findings, for instance Quinnipiac University surveys in Florida and Pennsylvania.
What Brownstein neglects to mention is that the period includes the 6-week 4-5 point Killing-bin-Laden spike, without which TAO might be in the high thirties.
