None of The Above?

On of my correspondents writes

I call your attention to Erick Erickson's op ed published [Tuesday] in Red State and picked up by RealClearPolitics...  Being a liberal pinko commie, and yet desirous of actual thinking with respect to politics, I find Eric's article to be particularly damning with respect to the current slate of candidates.  His position is not radically different than Joe Scarboro's Morning Joe position on the current list of GOP Candidates - yet despite Joe being my morning wakeup coffee companion, I can't help but feel his show is a carefully calibrated liberal fantasy of what conservatives think (recall my aforementioned pinko liberal leanings).  Thus, I'm craving a nuanced, real, trusted conservative response to Eric's article.  I know you're busy, but, of course, good Scotch is available for suitable debating of the issues raised by this email, and the article in question!

Since that Scotch -- make mine Lagavulin, please -- will have to remain a virtual experience until we are a thousand miles closer to each other, I'll take my encouragement from the fact that my friend describes his liberal-pinko-commie inclination as just that: a leaning.  I have always detected that certain faculty within him that craves rational political thought and that I believe is incompatible with the emotional tilt to his claimed politics.  Early in our friendship, I described him incorrectly as a genetic liberal, but over the years as I have come to know him better and to know more about his family, I have come to understand that he is indeed a lapsed genetic conservative longing to return to his roots.

But enough about him and his opinions.  Let's talk about me and mine.

The Damage Romney Did in Florida

It's difficult for me to say this, but there is little I can find with which to disagree in this piece by the shrieking wacko progressivist E.J. Dionne.

The political consultants -- yeah, yeah, I know, but if I'm citing Dionne, I can cite them, too -- say that negative ads cut twice.  For every two votes you take from your target, you lose one your own. 

The Race is On

Those of you who have attained a certain age, and who spent a significant part of your formative years in a small town or rural setting may remember when Top 40 radio really played the top 40 records in the country.  I heard Rock and Roll, Rhythm and Blues, Country and Western, Big Band Swing, all of it, on KBIM in Roswell.  In the NMSU SUB Snack Bar there was always a cowboy -- yep, the whole nine yards, hat, skinny Levis, belt buckle, and boots, though maybe studying agronomy or agricultural engineering -- walkin' up to the juke box and droppin' in a quarter for three plays.  One of them was sure to be George Jones pickin' and singin' The Race is On.  It was later covered by The Grateful Dead, though it's just not the same.

Over the last ten days, the Romney machine -- including the Super PACs flying low on Wall Street money -- carpet-bombed Newt Gingrich back into second place.  Yesterday -- to hear the establishment punditry and the Romney endorsers tell it -- Mitt creamed! Shellacked! DEVASTATED! Newt by FOURTEEN! percentage points and took ALL FIFTY! delegates from Florida.  Shazam! Kaboom!

The Unelectables

Here is RealClearPolitics.com's Sean Trende's analysis answering the widespread opinion that the contenders for the Republican Presidential Nomination are unelectable.

Says he, "So's your Ol 'Bama!" 

The Wreck of the Romney Inevitable (Part IV)

Just a couple of quick notes.

The last debate seems to have hurt Newt in Florida.  Two polls shown here taken since Monday, January 23, show Mitt leading him by about 6%.  The total number of people polled in those polls is about 900 people, so the margin of error on that number is about 3%.  Perhaps most interesting is the change from the 1/22 poll by Insider Advantage to the same company's 1/25 poll (scroll down a bit in the page).  Gingrich's support dipped only 2%, but Romney's jumped by 14%.   Since Santorum's support fell by 3% and Paul's by 4%, Romney's biggest pickup, 5%, came from the perennial candidates Aldee Udders and Ida Noe.

Insurgent vs. Establishment

Just as it was in 2010, it's Insurgents vs. The Establishment again in 2012.  So says the WSJ's usually ho-hum Gerald Seib.  He's right about that. 

Though Newt has lived in Washington DC for 33 years, has cozied up to the Clintons, sat on the love seat with Nancy Pelosi, advocated ethanol subsidies, the individual mandate, and home ownership for everyone, he is now the darling of  the Tea Party Insurgents.  How can that be?

There are many answers to that.

The Wreck of the Romney Inevitable (Part III)

Here is RealClearPolitics election analyst Sean Trende's takeaways on Romney's devastation in South Carolina.  Basically, they are

1.  No good news for Romney anywhere.
2.  This is much worse than W's 2000 loss to McCain in NH.
3.  Analysts claiming Romey's inevitability are kidding themselves.

Enjoy.  I did.  He estimates the chances that Romney won't be the nominee at 35%.

Oh.  Yeah.  The Romney lead in Florida has evaporated.  Newt leads him by 8 and 9% in the two polls taken since the South Carolina election.