A Referendum, Not a Choice (Part II)

Here is Sean Trende's typically in-depth, by-the-numbers analysis of what it means for an election to be a referendum on the incumbent, and whether this presidential election will be such an election.

His conclusion is in his title.

Perhaps this is a good time to remind you of why, though I test solidly Libertarian in every quiz on  political identification I have ever taken, I am so consistently Republican in my political choices and actions.

A Referendum, Not a Choice

Here is Jay Cost arguing conclusively that this fall's presidential election will be a referendum on Barack Obama, not an election of choice between him and Mitt Romney.  Why?  Because Republicans won't let him off the hook.

By trying to cast it as a choice, Obama is taking the only possible road to re-election.  How can Independents possibly like his record? .

Of course, if Jay's argument is correct, it means Obama will lose.

Are you One, Too? Part II

Almost a year ago, I sent out to friends a Pew Research quiz to help them find themselves in the political order of battle.

Now thanks to Paul Gessing of the Rio Grande Foundation, here is a quicker ten-question quiz with the same purpose.

Here is Paul's original piece on the subject, too.  Paul is doing great work.  He keeps shaking up the New Mexico political establishment with great ideas for more freedom.  Please consider becoming a supporter of the RGF.

Me?  I'm 5 + 5!

But you already knew that.

Understanding the Unemployment Rate

We found out yesterday that the nation's unemployment rate slipped downward firom 8.3% to 8.2% last month.   You probably think you know what that means, but do you really?

Newest Gallup Swing State Poll

Here is the newest Gallup/USAToday swing state poll for which I've been waiting.  It shows a huge swing to Obama from the mid-February poll, mostly among women.  Obama leads both potential Republican challengers, Romney by 9 points, 51-42, and Santorum by 11, 52-41, in the 12 states with the deciding 156 electoral votes.

This result is highly disturbing, but at this point volatility rather than stability is probably to be expected.